After the evaluation of your hand and your opponent’s hand, you need to count your own outs and in case your winning chances are less than 50 % you should not continue the attack. In case your winning chances are more than 50 %, you should re –raise. Take into consideration that the cards which give us over pair should not be mechanically counted as outs. For example: In case you have an Ace of spades and a King of spades, during the pre –flop you raise and get one call; the flop is 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and Jack of diamonds, your opponent plays check, you place a bet and get a call; the turn is 10 of spades and your opponent places a bet. It seems the situation is quite simple – you have 9 cards to a flush, 3 to a straight and 6 overs i.e. you have total 18 outs. But never forget the hand of your opponent – this means that the overs are not to be considered as absolute outs and in case a King or an Ace is revealed, your winning chances are less than 50 %, let’s say they are about 33 %. Then the number of your outs should be calculated as follows:
Σ (outs) = 9 (flush) + 3 (straight) + 0, 33×6 (overs) = 14
In other words, your real winning chances are 9 % less than they seem to be at first (4 outs are approximately 9 %, 1 out is about 2 %).
Experienced players say that in this situation very often the opponent has a really strong hand such as over pair, two pairs, a set, a straight or another strong combination. Many players in the Internet prefer to play the flop slowly hoping to get some dividends on the next streets. The general rule for these situations would be:
If you have attacked during the pre-flop and the flop, but on the turn your opponent answered with a full counterattack, your opponent can beat at least a top pair with top kickers.
This rule in the first approximation can be taken as the main reference point.
During a battle of re–raises on the turn you can calculate your winning chances, the pot odds and the number of outs even more accurately than during the other streets. The question is: “What do you need to consider – the counter attack of your opponent after call during the pre–flop and call on the flop?”
1. The hand of your opponent
2. The number of your outs
3. The House Edge
We will cover all these points in the next posts.